Monday, November 4, 2013

WWE's Missed Opportunities

I'm starting to notice a pattern with WWE.  It's a pattern I've seen before: tons of talent, not used in an obvious or logical way.

I just got done watching RAW.  Alberto Del Rio was on commentary with Zeb Colter during what was arguably the best match of the night, a three-way tag match with Cena and the Rhodes Brothers vs. Damien Sandow and the Real Americans.  Never mind for the moment the fact that Cena is not main eventing the night.  Never mind the fact that the Real Americans are losing matches.  The tag team scene in WWE is at its hottest, and now is the time for them to strike and get some good bids out of it.

What we have here...are factions.





The Real Americans are a tag team of two guys that WWE had nothing better for.  And honestly, Swagger is floundering in the team.  Cesaro is the real star.  But it's helped both guys get TV time they might not have otherwise.  I say that's best for business, certainly.  But what about all of the other great talent WWE has waiting in the wings, either constantly in the gym or hanging out around the catering table?  There is an opportunity to do the same with a lot of them.  I'm not suggesting they make every jobber pair a tag team, but there are some that are natural fits where there could be something done.  For the others, the division simply needs to be refined, and Smackdown is the key to that.

Let's start with factions.  "The Authority" is a faction.  "Paul Heyman Guys" is a pseudo-faction (although there are only two guys in it at present, one of which isn't a full-time employee).  If played right, Alberto Del Rio could easily create a faction of his own.  I have no idea what to call it.  But look at where he is now: He's calling everyone "gringos", which is a slang way of describing white people - if you were a black man and called someone a "cracker", same basic premise.  People have wanted Del Rio to get back to his flashy cars and amazing entrance, and WWE, either due to disinterest or budget restriction, won't do it.  But what if Del Rio were to "hire" Hunico and Camacho as his heavies?  Straight cholo thugs that do his bidding, guard him, etc?  It seems WWE wants Ricardo to turn face, which is unfortunate since his destiny seems to be to announce Del Rio on the way to the ring.  He would be a perfect compliment to this new Scarface-ish faction especially if they do skits and promos outside of the ring, like showing Del Rio counting money at his mansion or something.

Then there's the straight tag teams.  Many may not recall that Curt Hawkins and Zack Ryder are former Tag Team Champions as The Edgeheads.  Neither is doing anything as separate competitors; teaming them back up would make perfect sense given the current state of tag teams in WWE.  You've also got Justin Gabriel who quite frankly was at his best as Justin Angel in FCW, but barring that, he really should be a tag team with Heath Slater as they were in Corre.  Done right the WWE could really have something with Hawkins/Ryder, The Corre, and Los Matadores.  Right there you've got 6 of the best talent on the roster.  Throw The Rhodes Brothers in the mix, and WWE may end up making more legends than they know what to do with.

That leaves the singles guys.  The Cruiserweight belt definitely needs to be brought back, period.  Guys like Sin Cara, Tyson Kidd, Kofi Kingston, Justin Gabriel, Epico, Hunico, Primo, Cody, and soon to be Tyler Breeze could easily steal the show nightly by being allowed to showcase the moves that make the division shine.

Treat this as a mini-rant if you will.  But I really hope WWE starts to really push the envelope somewhat.  Have Smackdown be the show that has all of the exciting action.  Have RAW be the show that tells the stories.  Have NXT be the show where mat-based wrestling matters.  Keep the three independent, cross over only when it makes sense.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Why PG WWE Can't Work Long Term


Viewing this blog post is likely hazardous for someone who feels that the programming on television should always be child friendly.  It's an unfortunate state of affairs when you can't even have the kind of programming quality and separation that we used to have before the days of the internet, cell phones, tablets and other mobile devices.  Because you see, a lot of parents simply allow their technology to raise their kids.  They don't have a concept of proper parenting, and they lose sight of what really matters: Your kids should be watching certain types of programming.  You should (or may) watch other types of programming.  The two are oil and water.





There are programs that mix in the middle, or at least there used to be.  I would watch "Murder, She Wrote" or "The Law and Harry McGraw" or "Matlock" or "The Andy Griffith Show" or "I Love Lucy" or "Three's Company" all the time when my parents would watch it - why? Because they were safe and I actually learned something from the shows.  It was a nice respite from random cartoon foolishness.

But there was always a cutoff where I needed to (A) go study, (B) go to bed or (C) get out of the room.  It was during these times that you'd have classics such as that midnight running 900 ad promoting naughty things that you weren't supposed to watch, or scrambled PPV channels that still gave you the inappropriate audio.  Maybe it was something simple, like wrestling.

Huh?

That's right...wrestling used to be in what was referred to kindly as the "Prime Time" slot.  Meaning, it was not for kids.  It was in these days before wCw that WWF really shined, because they understood that they needed to appeal to all audiences, not just families, not just kids, not just men and not just females.  There were prime time shows, Saturday shows, even cartoons of the wrestlers for the kids.  You had the "grownups" programming and the "younger people" programming, all WWF-related, with memorable characters.  You had Randy Savage on the Slim Jim commercials.  You had Hulk Hogan walking the streets with kids and telling them to pray and eat vitamins.  You had Dusty Rhodes dancing with kids in the ring after matches.  You had a kid yelling at Bret, on his way to arena, and him handing sunglasses to kids in the crowd.  All of this was appealing to ALL audiences, not just one.




It has been suggested that the WWE is in trouble.  I think they are, but not for the reasons people think.  It's not that they need to use full-on sexuality all the time.  It's not a booking issue.  It's an identity crisis.

WWE currently sees itself as an "entertainment conglomerate" - the "wrestling" aspect is secondary to their desire to appeal to a wide audience with movies, music, social media, and news.  What they fail to realize is that they could mix the best of both and end up in a much better position than they are today.  In the early 2K and the late 90's there was a groundswell of up and coming talent that WWF was able to bend and condition to be stars even to people outside that never watched the programming.  But in their quest for cash during the Monday Night Wars, they began to rely too heavily on these guys, and leaned too far towards the idea that a "face" should always come out on top or a "heel" should always come out on top.  This is despite a televised diatribe from Vince talking about blurring the lines between "good and bad" and focusing more on the action.  They haven't done that since the so-called "Ruthless Aggression Era" but I'll come back to that in a moment.



Most of the biggest stars in WWF and WWE weren't main eventers; they were Intercontinental Champions, United States Champions, Tag Team Champions, and Hardcore Champions.  Of those, the greater majority were either fired, quit or got injured and had to leave.  In the Heavyweight Championship title picture there are a very select few that WWE has given the rub to, and of the ones that succeeded, most have died or are no longer active in WWE.  It would behoove WWE to sit down and analyze what made each of the most successful ones get over back when they were top stars, and use that same methodology to create new talent.  They've done it before - Eddie Guerrero and Chris Benoit showed up from wCw as "The Radicalz" and didn't do much, but they then pushed the envelope and got elevated to the stars they became.  Hell, Jeff Hardy started out as a no-name tag team member and went on to become one of the most noted stars in the industry.  It means WWE can do it if they really wanted to, with just about anyone on the current roster (except Hornswoggle, perhaps).


  • Randy Orton.  Orton rose to fame as the "Legend Killer".  He got over because of how violent he was towards various legends, from the moment he infamously spit in the face of Harley Race to that time he tossed Mick Foley down a flight of stairs, to the RKO on Hogan.  He was a smooth talking, good looking guy that seemed tailor made as a top tier heel.  Most remember him gently undressing Divas in the ring (only to later drop a picture-perfect RKO on Stacy Keibler), punt kicking people in the head including various members of the Nexus and the Corre, and his extensive feud with Wade Barrett.  Most also remember the time he performed a picture-perfect RKO on Steph, as well as a brutal DDT on the same.  These non-PG activities were what got Orton over in the first place.  As long as he can't do these things, he remains boring.  It just isn't in him to work in a PG world.
  • John Cena.  Cena rose to face as the guy who stepped up to Kurt Angle when nobody else would, but more importantly, he went from a no-name nobody that had a strange haircut, to the Halloween that would change his life forever, where he dressed like Vanilla Ice and cut raps in front of people backstage.  Most thought this was a one-time thing, until Cena went full throttle with throwback jerseys, thick chains and some VERY non-PG raps on the likes of Lesnar, Taker, Eddie, and Kurt.  It wasn't the rapping, it was the effectiveness of what he was saying in the promos.  You believed this guy was some white-boy rapper that could flow and destroy people on the mic, but more importantly, he was able to back up what he was saying in the ring.  He was dangerous, but funny.  Even as a heel, he said the right things, went int the ring and got the job done.  As a face, he was even funnier, but over time (and I blame his feud with HHH) he lost a lot of that steam as WWE headed towards PG.  I know Cena does a lot for Make-A-Wish and other charity events.  He still can, as long as WWE presses the idea that they're just characters playing a role.  He can still be an ambassador for WWE.
  • The Rock.  So much can be said about The Rock's rise to fame, which started with a very non-PG "Nation of Domination" after being drafted from a high flying "Flex Kavana" gimmick that wasn't going anywhere.  But everything Rock did was designed to entertain an adult audience.  He cut mean promos, he had vicious licks on people, constant innuendo and flirting (especially with Lilian Garcia), and an inappropriate tongue.  But he was exciting to watch in the ring, whether he was taunting Ric Flair's strut, getting on the commentary mic in the middle of the match or using a microphone while refereeing, there was never a dull moment with the man.  As seen when he came back to feud with Cena, the PG era doesn't work for him.  That's why he was allowed to deviate from the script slightly (only to end up having WWE get in trouble over some of his and Cena's gay inference comments).  But he was never the same since.
  • HBK/HHH.  I lump these two guys together because while Shawn Michaels was a decent talent after going solo, he was still largely unnoticed until he and HHH formed Degeneration X.  It can be argued that the timing of the group coincided rather closely with the nWo in wCw, but regardless of the reasoning, Degeneration X was one of the best things to happen in WWE.  It gave them the breath of fresh air needed to succeed at a time ratings were beginning to fall rapidly.  Reforming DX in the PG era felt like a joke - two old men trying to fill a gimmick that had no gas.
  • The Undertaker.  For the most part, the Deadman was above the table.  However, the very essence of what he used to do for the gimmick during the Attitude Era in particular made him stand out more than he does today.  Granted, he's hurt frequently and not able to have as many matches as he used to have, but there was definitely a time this man was putting asses in seats.  From putting opponents in body bags to burying them alive - fully - to striking people with lightning, the awe is lost now with him, and it's unfortunate since he really didn't do much that was "inappropriate", except during the American Badass era.  Even then he was still pretty much just a highlight of the show.
  • Edge.  The whole point behind the Rated R Superstar was the fact that he could do what he wanted, when he wanted, but it was a joke to have him show up in PG WWE given everything that made him stand out was no longer applicable.  No more spearing Mick Foley into a flaming table.  No more beating down John Cena in the ECW ballroom.  No more live sex shows with Lita on the programming where she was legit topless.  No more pins where he's simulating sex on a Diva after beating her in the ring.  No...his best days are long since gone.
  • Jericho.  While Y2J can still get the crowd on their feet just because he's one of the most entertaining in past and present WWE, he's still a pale shadow of his former self.  I remember clearly the last day we saw Ken Shamrock: Jericho had the Liontamer applied back in the parking lot, very painful looking.  I remember when Jericho and Christian (who is later to come) were in a match against Trish and Lita, a REAL match, with intergender contact, where the outcome was really putting Trish and Lita over as valid wrestling talent rather than models.  I remember also the comedy, such as when he pissed in Regal's tea.  So many legendary memories, never again seen.
  • Christian.  To be fair, Christian leaving to TNA when he did was untimely, because he was allegedly on his way to a major push.  In truth when he came back to WWECW, he did get a major push, only to end up jobbing the title to Zeke Jackson (who hasn't been seen since) after a successful run with that belt.  When he went to Smackdown his title reigns were tainted by an inability to beat Orton clean.  Christian was instrumental during the Ruthless Aggression Era and the Attitude Era though as one-half of one of the greatest tag teams in WWE history, and providing many comedy moments with Cena and Austin.  Now, if he is on the programming at all, he's jobbing.  He was last seen in a successful match against the Shield yet hasn't held gold in ages.
  • Rey Mysterio.  Everyone I hope remembers the three-way antagonism between Kurt, Rey and Orton years ago.  It was after Eddie died.  Rey Mysterio won the title.  Everyone said that the only reason Rey was given the belt was because of Eddie; Orton alluded to this in his promos and did so in an excellent way (this was the Ruthless Aggression Era, BTW).  Kurt would speak up about Rey's entitlement, but in truth he wanted the title as well, and Orton was playing mind games.  But the promos were hitting home perfectly.  Rey was a charity case, the WWE felt sorry for him.  Many people questioned a non-heavyweight holding the belt.  But his feuds during this time against Orton, Kurt, JBL and even Chavo Guerrero were the stuff of legends; though the pinnacle had to be his feud with Batista, and Batista's now legendary "EDDIE'S DEAD!" statement.  Never again.
  • Big Show.  Debuted as part of an acquisition from wCw.  One of his first feuds was an alignment with Shane McMahon and a feud with the Rock, which didn't really do either man a favor, but he peaked with his feud against Floyd Mayweather.  Despite people's misgivings about the match, it was the perfect way to promote both names.    Unfortunately, Show is quite entertaining but has not really done much of significant note in the ring besides his Smackdown match with Brock Lesnar (a NON PPV!!).
  • Mark Henry.  His introduction was at the peak of the Attitude Era as part of the Nation of Domination's second iteration.  Before that he was a happy, bubbly face that didn't have a clue.  Later, after leaving the Nation, it was "Sexual Chocolate" that would define him.  Everything about his gimmicks during this time were rooted in a non-PG world.  His current Hall of Pain gimmick, were it to be in a non-PG world, would likely result in pretty much everyone getting destroyed, and for the most part it has been so, but unfortunately he still gets jobbed out by Cena, the PG favorite
  • JBL.  Now retired.  But when he was active, during the Ruthless Aggression Era, the man was dominant.  He did things that were unthinkable: doing the Nazi march at a house show, chucking a trash can at Hornswoggle at full speed during a PPV, going hunting for illegals near the border, and prior to the gimmick, drinking beer and having strip poker with Trish and Ron Simmons.  There was simply no flaw to how he was brought up, period.  Now, he rants.  PG rants, mind you.
  • Booker T.  Retired (basically).  But back when wCw was purchased, at the pinnacle of the Ruthless Aggression Era, Booker T was a highlight of RAW along with Shane O'Mac.  He certainly wasn't PG, not at all.  His stints with Goldust, Rock, Austin, Shane, Vince and even Cody Rhodes were entertaining.  Unfortunately, he came to WWE a little too late to be made full use of.
  • CM Punk.  Punk debuted in WWECW, also near the end of the Ruthless Aggression Era, and because of the "extreme" nature of the show at that time, fit right in with the likes of RVD and Sabu.  He seemed a perfect fit for the show that was supposed to be a more exciting show than RAW or Smackdown (and it was at times).  He played the perfect opposite to Elijah Burke in the New Breed, and the teased paring with Kelly Kelly made for good television.  The Straight Edge Society was edgy and controversial for the time, and used real-life issues to enhance the character and the promos.  Very few can forget this feud with Jeff Hardy, and the fact that Punk aired Hardy's drug issues openly.  As a multi-time champion, Punk has stood out among the rest.  His popularity hit a peak with the "Pipebomb", where he cut a scathing promo on Vince, Cena, HHH, and Steph.  In fact, the only time Punk hasn't been boring is when he's either dropping  pipebombs or in the past when he wasn't gridlocked by PG.  His character belongs in a non-PG world.

Beyond that who's really left?  Chris Benoit died, Eddie died, Umaga died, and WWE is struggling to create stars.  

They've put the belt on Ziggler TWICE but refuse to let him showcase in main events despite his overwhelming talent.  The problem is that his character was initially introduced to be a non-PG character in the Ruthless Aggression Era (an off shoot of Dirk Diggler).




Swagger's held the WHC belt but he jobbed pretty much every single match, despite an exciting run as WWECW champion.  Again, he was introduced at the tail end of the Ruthless Aggression Era and simply became a casualty from the drop of that era.



Then there's Sheamus, who I left out of the list at the top solely because I don't feel he belongs in that list.  Sheamus started at the sunset of Ruthless Aggression Era as a vicious, no-nonsense replacement for Fit Finlay.  He was dominant in WWECW.  His win over John Cena, though a bit suspicious, cemented him in the main event.  Unfortunately, as they always do, WWE felt compelled to turn him face and run him as an unstoppable kid-friendly beast, which essentially made him boring.



Miz, for the same reason as Sheamus is down here, deserves credit for working as hard as he has.  But he came into WWE during the Ruthless Aggression Era as the wrong character.  He was a bubbly "HOO RAH" crowd pleaser, and it wasn't until later that his dominant, violent side shined through with his feud against Cena.  Nevermind the epic that was Miz & Morrison in ECW, one of the best tag teams of the time.  Had we seen that Miz back in the Ruthless Aggression Era, I've got no doubt that he would have been one of the top stars of the time.  He's just too filtered.



R-Truth should have been champion at least once by now.  Some felt he should have beaten Cena during their feud.



Same with Goldust - his feud against Taker showed that he had the chops for the competition.



But the problem is PG WWE.  It hinders the ability to let the stars shine through with their natural abilities which must necessarily be realistic.  Under PG, it's way too difficult to imagine someone like Daniel Bryan selling out an arena the way even basic guys like Brutus "The Barber" Beefcake did years ago, and even though there is an IC division, it will never be as solid as when Rick "The Model" Martel, Jake "The Snake" Roberts, Tito Santana, Mr. Perfect, Randy Savage, and Dusty Rhodes were at it.  Everyone is too generic, too unrealistic these days.  Nobody can properly stand out and show the crowd why they deserve to be there.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Analyzing Wrestlemania 29: Cena vs. The Rock


Normally I wouldn't touch this topic with a lengthy pole, but I wanted to put thoughts to the web, and see if I am able to be proven wrong by WWE.  As a side note, being unpredictable is what gets people talking about your product.  If you do things that are easily seen a mile away, your product becomes stale - and that's why we're even at this point.



Surely, you remember back when the marketing genius at WWE decided to label Wrestlemania 28's gala as "Once in a Lifetime", right?  The big battle between John Cena and the Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson.  It was supposed to rival the likes of Rock vs. Hogan in terms of energy and the meeting of two different eras.  Prepended with a bunch of childish promos on both sides and teases aplenty, it ended up fizzling out for two reasons.  One, the ending was predictable.  Nobody in their right mind thought Cena was going to go Super on the Rock after he'd been gone so long.  Two, it was well known that Rock was going to leave again, albeit briefly, and to have him leave on a loss seemed illogical.  Well, the predictable became record, as the Rock beat Cena in what was arguably a dull, lifeless match that was outshined by others on the card.  Unlike with Rock/Hogan where the winner was simply too difficult to pin down, Cena/Rock was just not that great, and I blame Cena mostly for that.  Rock looked fantastic, even though it's clear his cardio isn't what it used to be.



Then the unthinkable happened.  Rock later beat CM Punk for the WWE title.  Not only that, he beat him with a People's Elbow.  The least impactful move in the guy's arsenal.  A move he has NEVER pinned anyone else with without a Rock Bottom attached.  



Now, the game has changed.  That outcome was not easily predictable.  It seemed totally unlikely that WWE would put its signature title on someone who was part time over CM Punk who'd had not only an extended run as champion, but also a tremendous repeated showing against Cena at PPVs, where Cena/Punk has often been the most electric of matches, especially with them pulling out forbidden moves in their 2/25 RAW showdown (Piledriver, anyone?).  I had no issue with this, where I had a problem is when Cena won the Royal Rumble, guaranteeing him a title shot, after eliminating Ryback.  Ryback is easily the most notable talent in current WWE, and he's now just bouncing from feud-to-feud, showing off his power rather than contending against CM Punk, the guy who beat him with illicit help from Brad Maddox at Hell in a Cell earlier.  To me, it would make more sense and be less predictable to have Ryback face the Rock (truly, a match we haven't seen that just MIGHT have been exciting) or CM Punk (now that Maddox is not a ref to help him cheat).  But I digress.



We're stuck with "Twice in a Lifetime".  The marketing guy who came up with "Once" should be fired.  C'est la vie.  Let's look at what WWE's options are.
  1. Cena beats Rock, clean pin.  Since this would only happen after a move that the WWE Universe hates, this would only increase the hatred of Cena.  And maybe that's what WWE wants.  The scary thing is that this outcome would inevitably lead to "Thrice in a Lifetime", which may cost them viewers.
  2. Rock beats Cena, clean pin.  Rock would get major cheers, but what would this accomplish?  Same outcome as the first contest, leaves Cena in a wasted space.  Unless they're sending him back to midcard, which I can't see happening, or Del Rio drops to Swagger and Cena goes against him, which to me accomplishes nothing.
  3. Cena taps Rock.  Can you imagine the reaction on this?  It would mean Cena has made pretty much every single main eventer in WWE tap out, something Chris Benoit, Ric Flair and Daniel Bryan together have not accomplished.  The only main eventer left not having tapped to Cena would then be the Undertaker.  If Taker loses to Punk, he's guaranteed to retire, which means Cena would reign as the submission specialist.  GUARANTEED WWE would lose major viewers.
  4. Cena cheats to win.  This would result in Cena getting cheers.  It wouldn't be a heel turn though, because he'd simply position that he was doing "whatever it took" to win.  I simply don't see this happening, as much as I'd like to.  I also don't see what it accomplishes UNLESS he does full heel.
  5. Rock cheats to win.  Don't see it happening because the Rock doesn't need to cheat to beat Cena.  He's already proven that.
  6. Shield interference.  This has been speculated.  If it happens it would be exciting if only the fact that it gets the Shield more exposure with one of the top tier players.  I don't see it happening, because Orton makes more sense.  He's more comfortable in factions (see Evolution, Legacy) than Cena (see CTC, Nexus).
  7. No contest/DQ/Double Countout.  Possible.  But then they'd end up repeating Cena/Punk, and I don't see it happening. 
Rock is scheduled to go back to filming here soon, and while is planned to be engaged with WWE at leat part time going forward, he's never going to be doing weeklys or house shows.  As such, I don't see him holding the title past Wrestlemania.  To me, I think #3 is happening.  I don't want that, but it's what I see.  If WWE goes that route, they WILL lose viewers.


Monday, February 18, 2013

Elimination Chamber: How WWE Spoiled Ziggler's MITB Outcome (Maybe)

It occurred to me that WWE may have, purposely or inadvertently, spoiled the ending of Dolph Ziggler's MITB run. The way I see it, Swagger winning the Chamber means that Ziggler's cash in can only result in four possible outcomes.
In the current scenario, Swagger has won a shot at the World Heavyweight Championship, held currently by Alberto Del Rio, at Wrestlemania. At the Elimination Chamber PPV, Dolph Ziggler stated that he would cash in his MITB "before Wrestlemania". Now either that was a botch, or the outcome has already been determined, because it doesn't make sense otherwise. Let's assume that Swagger/Del Rio is going to proceed as planned, and the recent borderline racist gimmick he has seems to point in that direction. That means that Del Rio will still be champion come Wrestlemania, which seems to indicate that Ziggler won't be. His MITB expires at Wrestlemania, if memory serves me, which means if he doesn't cash in before or at the event, it's a wash. That means we can only go a select few ways at this point without WWE pulling a major swerve job (which they HAVE done in the past).
Let's take a look at what these outcomes are.
  1. Dolph Ziggler Turns Face. If Ziggler turns face, then the current plan would make sense. There was some news chatter about the idea that some in WWE want to turn Ziggler into a face due to his current popularity. While I think this is a huge mistake given his whole #HEEL methodology (something he made famous, BTW), and given potential future feuds with WWE stars would be extremely less exciting with him in the face seat, it would restore continuity to the storyline at least, because he could then cash in against Del Rio, turn face, and go against a heel Swagger (even though it cuts directly into Swagger's current gimmick). Still not a desirable option and I hope WWE is smarter than this.
  2. Dolph Ziggler Cashes In But Does NOT Win. In this outcome, Del Rio/Swagger is allowed to go forward as planned, but I can't see this being beneficial for any of these guys. It leaves Ziggler with nothing to really look forward to and Swagger in a position of being guaranteed to lose to Del Rio, which would drop his steam severely. It also puts Ziggler in a worse position than Cena, since Ziggler would more than likely actually lose his match unlike Cena where he just didn't get the title but still won.
  3. Dolph Ziggler Cashes In But Loses The Title Back To Del Rio Before Wrestlemania Somehow. I seriously hope WWE doesn't go down this path, because it would be a repeat of his last WHC title "run" where he was essentially a champion in name only and didn't get a chance to really run with it.
  4. Dolph Ziggler Cashes In After Del Rio/Swagger. This is also problematic, because it means Swagger is guaranteed to lose that match (we believe he will lose anyway, but this outcome pretty much guarantees it), as it's extremely doubtful that they would let Swagger take it, Ziggler cash in on him, and then Swagger turn his attention back to Del Rio rather than try to get the title back. Whereas if Del Rio wins but is decimated in the process, it opens the door for Ziggler to take the title, freeing Del Rio from the main event hunt long enough to continue the feud between him and Swagger. Ziggler is then freed up, as champion, to go against people like a returning Christian, or Jericho, or more long term, Orton.
Now technically, #4 should not be possible since the MITB should be expired. But since it's WWE I wouldn't put it past them to do something like this. What worries me more is the fact that these outcomes are the only possibilities I can see unless they pull a major swerve. Swagger's return and newfound gimmick have thrown a wrench in things, which may actually be a good thing...unless they go with #1.